By Jalaj Tokas
Published On: December 24, 2021 at 19:00 IST
Introduction
Despite the fact that India and Pakistan have linguistic, cultural, physical, and economic ties, their relationship has been complicated by a series of political and historical events. The traumatic partition of British India in 1947, the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and multiple military confrontations between the two countries have all shaped Indo-Pak ties.
Since their independence in 1947, India and Pakistan have had such tense ties that commerce, cooperation, and peace negotiations have frequently taken place alongside threats of war. They’ve fought four wars and, on more than one occasion, used a realistic threat of war to mobilize their troops.
Pakistan maintains a terrible track record when it comes to repairing ties with India. It intruded across the Line of Control (LoC) and occupied Indian territory in Kargil in response to then-Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s peace overture through the Lahore Bus initiative, and contrary to its lofty claims, the Pakistan army continues to provide safe havens and foster terrorist groups perpetrating proxy war in J&K. Similarly, almost every Indo-Pakistan peace endeavor in recent years has been followed by a terrorist incident.
However, in recent years, the ties between India and Pakistan have reached an all-time low as a result of a series of high-profile terror incidents claimed on Pakistan-based terror organizations. While, India has maintained that terrorism and dialogue are incompatible. Pakistan, on the other hand, has claimed that India has failed to offer proof to back up its charges. This article analyses the pattern in which the conflict is evolving since the beginning of Imran Khan era.
Recent Events
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan made the headline speech to the ‘Islamabad Conclave 21’ on December 9, one week before the fiftieth anniversary of the fall of Dhaka, which marked the official break-up of the 1947 Pakistan and the independence of Bangladesh.
The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) hosted the event to highlight the importance of peace and development in South Asia. Khan, the institute’s patron-in-chief, couldn’t help but focus on his usual critiques of the Modi administration and its ideologies.
Severing Ties
Khan could have delved inside to examine the causes of Pakistan’s worst calamity in its history. He could have expressed remorse for the atrocities perpetrated by the Pakistani army on its own people. He could’ve also spoken out against the negative aspects of army rule. All of this, however, would have needed bravery, which Khan clearly lacks. As a result, he selected the Sangh Parivar and the Modi administration as his targets.
Surprisingly, the Pakistani Prime Minister focused on Indian ideological growth at a time when a group of employees and others in Sialkot slaughtered and burned a Sri Lankan engineer for allegedly blasphemous behavior. The group’s leaders snapped pictures with the burned body.
In his ISSI address, Khan also said that discussions between India and Pakistan are impossible due to the BJP government’s “religious nationalism.” It’s strange that the prime minister of a nation built on “religious nationalism” would be making such a claim about the possibilities of India-Pakistan dialogue.
This doesn’t come as a surprise to India which has time and again witnessed regular violent episodes in the conflict environment which has created a self-sustaining destructive cycle of distrust, bellicosity, and violence. As a result, a healthy cycle of mutual understanding, trust building, harmony, and stability between the two countries was never successful in establishing itself.
Past Instances
Even though the newly-elected, army-backed PTI administration and Prime Minister Imran Khan had sought a breakthrough in the form of dialogue amid the opening of the Kartarpur route, a long-standing demand of the Indian Sikh population, Indo-Pak ties remained tight in 2018.
Ahead of India’s upcoming election season, the Modi 1.0 administration adopted a more cautious approach, refraining from making overtures to Pakistan. The corridor progressed according to plan, but India declined to restart official discussions with Pakistan. If a breakthrough in India-Pakistan ties was expected after the Indian elections in mid-2019, the Pulwama attack in February of that year pre-empted that possibility.
In more ways than one, the Pulwama-Balakot crisis set the tone for the bilateral relationship. The Pulwama incident not only bolstered India’s claim of cross-border terrorism coming from Pakistani soil, but also cast doubt on Prime Minister Imran Khan’s resolve and ability to rein in anti-India forces backed by Pakistan’s deep state.
On November 8, 2019, the two nations opened the visa-free Kartarpur Corridor, in honor of Guru Nanak Dev’s 550th birthday. Throughout 2019, the Kartarpur project held up to the test of tense bilateral ties, proving to be an example of successful para-diplomacy or sub-national diplomacy between India and Pakistan.
As Prime Minister Khan endeavored to repair Pakistan’s and his own international image while navigating an ongoing economic crisis, the Kartarpur Corridor idea received widespread political backing in Pakistan.
The Modi government, on the other hand, has been wary of portraying Kartarpur as a political confidence-building step between the two nations. This is particularly true because the corridor poses cross-border security risks for both nations; the Indian government is particularly concerned about the potential for radicalization in Punjab as a result of a resurgent Khalistan movement with Pakistani assistance.
As a result, the events of 2019 in India-Pakistan ties have clearly not favored Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan’s Inconsistency and Loose Warnings on Kashmir
Imran Khan reaffirmed Pakistan’s long-held position on India-Pakistan relations.
“Kashmir has held the peace of South Asia hostage,” adding, “We trust that India’s administration is capable of resolving the problem rationally and sanely. The sole issue between India and Pakistan is this. Pakistan would endeavor to address the situation via negotiation till the last possible moment.”
Khan’s remark has a fundamental inconsistency: if contact with the Modi government is ruled out, with whom would Pakistan talk “till the last minute”? Furthermore, the phrasing implies a warning, which India should, of course, disregard.
Kashmir is, in truth, an expression of Pakistan’s belief that India is a perennial foe. Even if the “Kashmir conflict” is settled, some Pakistanis accept that bilateral relations would remain tough since India is “hegemonic,” they say.
It’s also worth noting that Khan wants “logic and sanity” to lead him in resolving the Kashmir conflict. While, Pakistan itself has never shown any sense when it comes to Kashmir. It has become fascinated with it to the cost of itself. In terms of logic, Pakistan’s position has been devoid of it. It is inconceivable to envision Pakistan becoming ‘sane and rational’ in its approaches to India, given the consolidation of religious extremism and fundamentalist theologies in the country.
Bottom Line
Under the Imran Khan administration in Pakistan and the Modi 2.0 regime in India, India-Pakistan relations are perhaps at their lowest level in this decade. The downhill spiral began in 2016, when a series of terrorist attacks targeting Indian civilians and military assets, as well as instability in Kashmir, destabilized bilateral relations. Ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LOC) have climbed into the four figures since then, and they’re getting worse every year.
The bilateral relationship further deteriorated in 2018 and 2019, owing to increased political and military tensions, with cross-border economic contacts stopped and formal avenues of communication between the two governments remaining closed.
In August 2019, diplomatic ties further worsened as Pakistan expelled India’s High Commissioner while protesting against India’s effective abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. The international community, however, remains uninterested in mediating an India-Pakistan conflict.
It makes one wonder as to why Pakistan isn’t serious about normalizing relations with India, while it is making such a fuss over peace. The explanation is simple: it’s doing so only to deceive the international world, and it’s motivated by a desire to curry favor with US President Joe Biden’s administration and the FATF, which has retained Pakistan on its ‘Grey List’ until June this year.
India’s Stance
India maintains that it seeks healthy neighborly ties with Pakistan in accordance with its “Neighborhood First Policy”. India’s continuous view is that any concerns between India and Pakistan should be handled bilaterally and amicably in a free of terror and violence environment. India has time and again mentioned the instrumental role Pakistan has to play in creating such an atmosphere.
India has also informed Pakistan that negotiations and terror cannot coexist, and has demanded that Islamabad take concrete action against terror organizations involved for a variety of assaults against India.
It is consistent with past administrations’ positions: as long as Pakistan, regardless of who governs it, does not give up terrorism, India will not engage in a dialogue. This is a reasonable stance to take, and it is also supported by international law.
India has therefore made it clear that it would not compromise on national security matters and will take forceful and decisive action to counter any attempts to undermine the country’s security and territorial sovereignty.
What can be Expected?
Given the recent developments, as well as the shift in Indian subcontinent’s regional power balance, the Modi 2.0 administration is unlikely to give an olive branch to Pakistan on conditions and deadlines that the Imran Khan government may set.
Three things in particular might influence India’s stance on bilateral ties with Pakistan in the coming year. First, the PTI government’s commitment to take concrete steps to prevent Pakistani individuals and organizations from instigating violence and terrorism in India.
Second, if the US attitude on India-Pakistan ties remains consistent with Indian statements condemning Pakistan’s backing for terrorist groups operating against India.
Third, the smooth transition of Jammu and Kashmir into distinct union territories in accordance with the 2019 reorganization legislation.
Domestic forces, such as the urgent need to solve the country’s economic problems without losing the narrative on Kashmir, may play a role in molding Imran Khan’s government’s attitude on ties with India as the Kartarpur fever fades. Even the low-hanging fruits cannot produce the essential trust and climate for conflict resolution in the absence of a structured formal conversation process, as the Kartarpur event demonstrates.
Conclusion
Conflicts and appeasements abound in the Indo-Pak past. They have had multiple mutual confrontations since their independence in 1947, which have gotten worse as time has passed. For a number of causes, initiatives to promote peaceful growth and collaboration between India and Pakistan were launched and then abandoned multiple times.
India is aware of the importance and benefits of regional peace, and it does not hesitate to speak with even adversaries since conversation pays well. As a result, India has replied with cautious optimism, keeping all options open.
However, the path to peace cannot be pursued at the expense of national interests. If Pakistan ceases to sponsor terrorism in J&K and is willing to go down to the negotiating table with a genuine objective, discussions may move quickly and ties can be normalized.
However, if Islamabad persists in its bumbling and abrasive diplomacy of holding peace talks hostage to the Kashmir problem, India would not hesitate to walk out as it would amount to wasting its time in responding to Pakistan’s deceitful overtures.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jalaj Tokas is a second Year Law student pursuing B.A.LLB from University School of Law and Legal Studies, GGSIPU, New Delhi. He is a life-long learner is self driven towards his ambitions. He strongly believes that expectations are premeditated disappointments and strives not just to be successful but more importantly to be of value.
Edited by: Aashima Kakkar, Associate Editor, Law Insider
References
- No trade with India under current circumstances: Pakistan PM Imran Khan
- India-Pakistan ties: PM Imran Khan’s peace offer façade
- Explained: What Imran Khan as Prime Minister means for the India-Pakistan ties
- Pakistan and India Relations: A Political Analysis of Conflicts and Regional Security in South Asia